What happens when global warming makes parts of the US uninhabitable, or less attractive as a place to live. It is likely that the southwestern US will become so dry and water so expensive that people will choose to live elsewhere. People currently living along coasts that become inundated by sea level rise and increasingly battered by tropical storms may choose to live further inland.
Until now, nobody seems to have been seriously addressing the issue of migration in response to climate change, perhaps because it seems so far in the future. But in fact, migration is already happening: many families displaced by Hurricane Katrina chose not to return to New Orleans, and the same may be true after Hurricane Ike.
In Portland, Oregon, which often seems to think about the future before everyone else, people are now beginning to seriously consider the population impacts of climate change. Although nobody can make predictions about the potential for migration, it is worth incorporating into planning. Lorna Strickel, a Portland water planner, originally brought the potential for climate-related migration to the attention of planners, mayors and others at a conference. Strickel is particularly concerned about the potential for population growth to stress the city’s water supply. Since Portland water supply depends heavily on mountain snow pack, a double impact of climate change could be felt – reduced water availability as snow pack is reduced, and increased population.
Regional predictions for Kentucky suggest something similar. In a warmer climate, Kentucky will continue to have good water supplies, with increased precipitation increasing stream flow. However, severe droughts will probably be more frequent. Kentucky could become more attractive as a place to live because of abundant water, but with increased drought frequency stressing the water supply. Kentucky needs to begin planning for better water management and storage.
